On 23 August 2024 Ed Miliband the new UK Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero and Chris Stark the new Head of Mission Control for Clean Power 2030 commissioned the NESO to provide practical advice on achieving clean power by 2030 for Great Britain. NESO published its advice on 5 November 2030.

The Government didn't define what was meant by 'clean power' so NESO has described it as where:

• clean power sources (which include renewables, biomass, nuclear, plants using carbon capture and storage, and green and blue hydrogen) produce more power than Great Britain consumes in total; and
• unabated gas provides less than 5% of Great Britain's generation in a typical weather year.

So it's not a system that has no 'dirty' power at all; and views may differ on what NESO has classed as a clean power source.

Pathways to get there

Similar to NESO's Future Energy Scenarios, there are two alternative suggested 'pathways' to get to clean power by 2030.

The 'Further Flex and Renewables' pathway involves the highest level of societal engagement, with more demand flexibility and more storage. So it relies on consumers and businesses changing their behaviour. It also involves a fast deployment of renewables, with 50GW of offshore wind, but no new dispatchable power.

The 'New Dispatch' pathway involves a growth in renewables, but not as much, with 43GW of offshore wind. It also relies on the deployment of 2.7 GW of new low carbon dispatchable power (CCS and hydrogen) alongside more nuclear.

These are just suggestions and the Government is likely to take a path that's somewhere between the two.

Both pathways involve increased electrification of heat, transport and industry; energy efficiency improvements; increased digitalisation, open data and innovation; and a gas fleet of similar size to today, for security of supply. We can take this as a given that these things need to happen to meet the 2030 target, whichever path (or variation of it) is followed.

Chapter 2 of the advice sets out the core elements of a clean power system. There are some standout points.

• Scale of renewables: weather dependent renewables (wind and solar) will make up 80-84% of GB's 2030 supply, with offshore wind as the basis of this. NESO acknowledges that while the grid connection queue has enough projects to expand from the current 15GW up to 54GW by 2030, reaching even the lowest level of 43GW in the New Dispatch pathway will be challenging. There also needs to be a doubling of onshore wind and a trebling of solar capacity.
• Transmission network build: the Pathway to 2030 report from 2022 sets out the wider transmission network build programme, and this needs to happen if the clean power 2030 goal is to be met. There are 88 transmission projects in the pipeline and 80 of these need to be delivered by 2030, including three that currently have a delivery date after 2030 [1] but need to be accelerated.
• Connections reform: At the same time as releasing this report, NESO issued the next stage of the connections reform consultation. NESO has proposed that the reformed connections process and queue should align with the Government’s clean power plan (and then with subsequent strategic plans like the SSEP) with respect to technology, capacity and regional requirements for clean power. This is a shift away from the current position and is likely to have an impact on what projects connect where (and therefore an impact on investment decisions). It may well be that some projects will not get a connection if they are not in the right place or are not the right technology.
• Behaviour change: we will all need to change the way we use power. To smooth out the peaks and troughs in demand, we will need incentivising to switch on (and off) at times that suit the grid, not us, by using electric vehicles as a battery on wheels to power the grid, and smart appliances that can turn off or down when sent a signal. This will mean new markets for flexibility services and increased digitalisation, as these services rely on smart meters. NESO's pathways assume that innovative tariffs or other retail offerings are the default from 2028.
• Digitalisation: NESO recommends consolidating isolated and siloed digitalisation initiatives into a unified, sector-wide prioritised plan, with more data sharing and use of artificial intelligence.

[1] Norwich to Tilbury (classed as 2 projects) and Sealink HVDC, see Annex 2 of the Clean Power Report for details

Chapter 4 of the Clean Power 2030 report sets out the key enablers needed to get to clean power by 2030. The pivotal one seems to be a decision on the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly whether to adopt locational pricing. Until a final decision is made on this, investors are reluctant to commit to new projects.

Deploying the amount of clean power needed by 2030 also hinges on government investment support mechanisms like the Contract for Difference (CfD), cap and floor mechanisms for interconnectors and long duration storage, and the CCUS and hydrogen business models.

Around 30% of Great Britain's electricity (37GW) is supplied by unabated gas generation plants, operating at a 25% load factor over the year, generating all the time and setting wholesale prices 97% of the time. This will have to change. Clean Power 2030 envisages still needing around 35GW of gas plants but they will only be used during periods of low wind and solar output, so their load factor would reduce to 5% by 2030, running only 15% of the time in the Further Flex and Renewables pathway or 47% of the time in the New Dispatch pathway.

So if they can't generate all the time, and sell their power, how will they earn enough money to keep operating? NESO expects them to become more dependent on revenue support from the Capacity Market or a (new) strategic reserve mechanism: this is one of the options being considered in REMA, although DESNZ are proposing to discount it.

The report acknowledges that Government, NESO and Ofgem will need to carefully monitor the effectiveness and value for money of any capacity market arrangements and have a plan in place to manage the impact of plants exiting from the market on capacity adequacy. There needs to be a decision by July 2025 when the next Capacity Market Parameters are published.

Many plants are reaching the end of their natural life and encountering practical challenges such as sourcing spare parts and retaining an experienced workforce. But any new gas plant will need to be capable of having carbon capture technology fitted, so it is a trade off as to whether it is cheaper to keep an existing plant running or close it and replace it with a new, but more expensive, plant (but one which may be able to run for longer as it is cleaner). The New Dispatch pathway envisages 2.7GW of gas with CCS or hydrogen plants coming online by 2030.

Although the report notes that "There are developers with specific projects ready to deliver for 2030 under the right conditions…" this could be seen as a tall order given that funding for HAR 1 (hydrogen) and track-1 (CCUS) have only just been confirmed and that other key pieces of the puzzle (the hydrogen transport and storage business models) are still in the consultation phase. It will take, not just additional funding, but a substantive practical effort to speed up (for example) agreeing the Low Carbon Hydrogen Agreements and preparing detailed legislation and guidance for the outstanding business models.

The Clean Power 2030 advice is just that – advice – and the Government might not choose to follow it exactly, although it will certainly take it into account. The next step is for the Government to set out its own plan for clean power. No deadline has been set for this but the implication is that it will be in place by spring 2025 when the connections reform process starts to be implemented. Once the Government's plan is published, NESO will rapidly develop an implementation plan and will also use the Government's plan as the basis for its Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) which is due in spring 2026.