Lucy Robson: Intervention is out and growth is in! Shakeups in the UK and US competition authorities… but what does that mean for M&A?

Welcome to Mergerspresso, AG’s corporate finance soundbite. We are back for 2025… this is your 2 minute briefing on the drive for anti-trust change.

I'm Lucy Robson and delighted to have Rona Bar-Isaac guest-starring.

So Rona, what's your take on the latest headlines, which kind of look like the political replacement of the Chair of the CMA with the former head of Amazon UK?

Rona Bar-Isaac: Well, I am not sure that front page headlines are what our competition agency heads bargained for! But the role of regulation in the economy is getting more and more political by the day – as we see the changing of the guard in the US, but also in the UK, as our Government is pressing the CMA to support a growth strategy. That could mean a few things in practice - lighter, quicker regulation (don't we all hope for that?) but also facilitating investment in the UK economy. But competitive markets should be achieving that in any case.

Lucy Robson: Yes, for sure. And how do you think this will play out with M&A?

Rona Bar-Isaac: So, for some kinds of deals, this will shift the dial. It's not just a question for mega deals – if you have a transaction where merger is the only way you are going to achieve investments in key new technologies, unlock infrastructure investment or protect resilience, then you might well get a more sympathetic hearing. We saw some of this in the Vodafone/3 deal – there's a prize of huge 5G investment, but concentration in that market is also clear. So the answer there was a mix of "quasi-structural" remedies, basically to make spectrum available to third-parties and medium-term behavioural remedies in the form of price controls, were the recipe to squaring the circle there. It is quite specific to its facts, but also the kind of deal that used to falter.

Lucy Robson: Yes of course. And the UK is very focussed on growth, not just M&A, of course?

Rona Bar-Isaac: That is right and it is a tricky moment for the CMA. It's just acquired a host of new powers to allow intervention in digital markets and protect consumers. It leaves it able to set tone early as markets develop, but also risk stifling them before they have even really got going. There is a careful line to tread which actually isn't really about being pro-tech or anti-tech, but does open some really interesting policy questions of when and how quickly to act and which growth bets you are making…all under very intense pressure to deliver the right results!

Lucy Robson: Yes definitely. Well thank you… interesting times ahead! 

We'd love to hear if you think this will start unlocking deals. Get in touch or let us know in the comments and catch you next time for the secret ingredient to growth in the FTSE index…